FundamentalOverview
Crude oil has been on thebackfoot ever since the last US NFP report as the market might have started toquestion the reasons to push into even higher highs. Things got even murkier asTrump’s odds of winning soared after the failed assassination attempt.
He is a great supporter ofthe “drill, baby, drill” slogan and he will likely put an end to the war inUkraine if he gets elected. Those should be bearish drivers for crude oil as expectationsof increased supply amid a slowing but growing economy might give the buyers ahard time.
On the other hand, we have the Fed that is about to cut rates into a resilient economy, which should be a positive driver for demand. The technicals might help here as a bounce on the key support zone should lead to higher prices, while a breakout to the downside would spell trouble for the market.
Crude OilTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we cansee that crude oil pulled back from the 84.50 resistance all the way to the key 80 supportzone. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined riskbelow the zone to position for a rally into the 87.50 level. The sellers, onthe other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the 80 support toincrease the bearish bets into the 77 level next.
Crude Oil TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that the most recent lower high stands around the 81.30 level. This is thelevel the buyers will want to see breaking to gain even more confidence andpile in for a rally into the trendlinearound the 83 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UpcomingCatalysts
Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking while tomorrow we conclude with thelatest US Jobless Claims figures.
